By: Debbie Cockrell
Tones of defiance and predictions of uncertainty were the main themes at the 2025 Horizons Economic Forecast breakfast held early Wednesday at the Tacoma Convention Center.
The event is organized by the Tacoma Pierce-County Chamber. No speaker went into detail on local effects from sweeping executive orders issued by the second Trump administration, but there were plenty of asides.
No speaker went into detail on local effects from sweeping executive orders issued by the second Trump administration, but there were plenty of asides.
Newly elected County Executive Ryan Mello helped kick things off, stating, “I’m here to tell you that no matter what happens in the other Washington, you won’t see Pierce County shy away from equitable economic development and lifting all communities up.”
Democratic U.S. Rep. Marilyn Strickland, whose district stretches from eastern Tacoma to Olympia, was also in attendance, and told the audience, “It is so nice to be here in the better Washington.”
Stating her priorities “have not really changed” for the next session of Congress, she still considers “housing as the anchor of everything we have to do to strengthen our economy.”
“We know it is expensive to build housing. We know that some well-meaning regulations actually hinder the supply of housing, and we have to be very, very smart about international policy with tariffs,” Strickland added.
She said she also wanted to call special attention to two issues beyond her prepared remarks, with DEI being the first.
“We do not need to be afraid of diversity, equity and inclusion,” she said to applause. “It’s not even a political conversation. This is about the hard reality of what makes organizations better when you have people with different backgrounds and different life experiences at the table, making decisions. You are smarter, you are stronger.”
She cited as an example Washington-based Costco for its recent defense of maintaining its policies “as a smart business decision.” Strickland said the second issue weighing heavily on workplaces and the national economy was the cost of care-giving, from child to elder care.
“If we need federal subsidies to help these small businesses that provide these services, we have to step up and do it,” she said.
Two economists offered their perspectives on where the U.S. economy and local economy were headed.
Angelo Kourkafas is senior strategist in investment strategy with Edward D. Jones. He noted that “the elephant in the room … is a new administration (that) has very clear and different policies than the previous one. We’re talking about tax cuts, deregulation, tariffs, immigration and other policies that are certainly impactful for the markets.”
“The order of implementation might matter,” Kourkafas said. “There’s a lot of excitement from the business community about taxes and regulation, but also some concerns around inflation and what tariffs might be.”
Neal Johnson, who produces the Pierce County Economic Index annually for the Horizons meeting, noted during an economic Q-and-A session with Kourkafas, “I can imagine some coffee-shop owners were probably sweating bullets over the weekend with regards to Colombia.”
Colombia supplies around 30% of U.S. coffee imports. President Trump and the Colombian government over the weekend reached a deal after Trump threatened imposing tariffs and sanctions on Colombia for rejecting two flights of deportees from the United States.
Newly elected Democratic U.S. Rep. Emily Randall now serves the seat formerly held by U.S. Rep. Derek Kilmer, which includes the Olympic and Kitsap peninsulas and much of Tacoma.
She quipped that among the first images of her serving in Congress was a video of her watching two of her colleagues go at each other in a heated hearing exchange, a dramatic departure from state Legislature hearings she previously participated in as a state senator. “No matter the political theater that you see in those viral oversight committee hearing clips, it is our job as members of Congress to get to know each other so that we can all serve you better,” she said in closing remarks.
Local economic challenges
Johnson said in his local presentation that the COVID-19 pandemic effectively set back Pierce County’s economic progress.
“The pandemic essentially cost the Pierce County economy two years worth of growth in the PCEI,” he said. “We are currently below a smooth growth trend line, with 2024 looking sort of like a normal year, and 2025 looking maybe a bit weaker.”
Labor growth in the county also has been sluggish.
“Labor force participation took a hit during the pandemic and is only now back to late 2018 and early 2019 levels,” he said. “So post-pandemic labor growth has been decidedly lower than pre-pandemic growth.”
He compared Pierce County’s overall economic index growth against was King, Snohomish, Lewis and Thurston counties.
“Pierce County’s growth post-pandemic is the weakest among the five comparison counties and is the only county with a 2023 index lower than in 2021,” his report stated.
Housing also is in a tough spot as prices climb.
“With mortgage rates not likely to come down significantly, I don’t see an improvement unless prices come down — not likely,” he said. “Or household incomes jump substantially, also not likely, or mortgage rates fall, increasingly unlikely.”
Johnson’s report stated that total real taxable retail sales fell for the second year in a row, “dropping 2.8 percent in the 12 months ending June 30, 2024. This reflects both the waning impact of the three COVID economic relief packages and high mortgage rates, which deter consumers from tapping into home equity.”
Johnson and Kourkafas were asked to diagnose the outlooks of the local and U.S. economies as if they were medical doctors.
For Pierce County, “It’s relatively healthy. I would recommend going to the gym, perhaps the Workforce Central gym, particularly for the unemployed,” Johnson said. “Our unemployment rate is a percentage point higher than it probably should be.”
And for the national outlook?
“The U.S. as a patient is feeling healthy, is healthy, but also maybe feels slightly invincible and carries extra weight,” Kourkafas said. “And I’m talking about the deficits, something that probably would be wise to shrink some of that weight so it doesn’t lead to any long-term health concern.”